Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Revolution requires Resolution

The people's revolt in Iran will likely not succeed in its immediate goal of
reversing the outcome of the fraudulant election. The suppresive power of the
reactionary state will wear down the protesters, because they lack dynamic leadership. Mousavi did not begin the protest to bring down the theocracy that
rules. He was protesting a fraudulent election which deprived him of the political power he sought for himself. The youthful population wanted change from a medieval, autocratic system which deprived them of opportunities to join the modern world and improve their material condition. Their only rallying point was that frail reed Mousavi. If he, or his more dynamic wife, had seized the reins of the protest and
accepted goals larger than his self interest, the revolt would have galvanized
the vast majority of Iranians to drive on to success. The bloody suppression by
the ruling council would have been self defeating by exposing their interest in control, not the general welfare of he nation.
The game is not over. The seeds of change, fertilized by the blood of martyrs such as Neda, have been planted. The vulnerabilities of the supreme Mullah and the Council
have been exposed. That will stimulate the opposition. They may change tactics,
but the trend has begun and will increase in momentum each day. Despite efforts to suppress communication among the dissidents, modern technology, combined with individual ingenuity, enables the revolutionaries to communicate and coordinate.
Time and evolution are on their side.
The role of the West is to keep the spotlight of public opinion on Iran, and to apply diplomatic and commercial pressure on the ruling clique. If it can be done in a manner which deprives the rulers from claiming that the revolution is foreign born, the West should provide clandestine assistance to the rebels.

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