New Day, New Nation, New People?

In the wake of the euphoria of the peaceful transition to a new administration,there are many shoals and rapids through which the ship of state must navigate. The hull is leaking, the crew is disconsolate and bewildered, and the passengers are in a panic. The previous captain belittled charts. He set his course by gut feelings, convinced that the seamasters of old were wrong in believing the earth was round. Now the new, inexperienced, captain must patch the hull, inspire and revive the crew, and calm the passengers, while steering a course through unknown waters back to a safe shore. All of that with a disabled engine and torn sails.
The folks in port are waiting for the ship bearing their loved ones. Will they organize a flotilla of boats to tow the ship to port,or will they be bystanders and rely on one man to save the day?

Confidence?

The current mantra to explain our deepening recession/depression is that the public has lost confidence that the the market will solve the problems it created. Therefor, even those still employed have stopped all unnecessary spending. Coupled with an almost total constriction in the credit markets, this is a near fatal blow to our consumption based economy.
During the great depression, one of the mechanisms which was used to alleviate the unemployment problem was the CCC---Civilian Conservation Corps. Millions of men and women were employed by the government on public works projects, which made permanent contributions to the infrastructure and well being of the nation. We could use three C's again: Competence, Certainty, and Confidence, in that order.
If the public sees that the politicians it elected mean what they promised, and are proceding competently to tackle the problems in the economy, not with idealogy, and not for the benefit of the well off and well connected, a sense of certainty that things will get better will gradually grow. As jobs are created again Confidence will
rise again. We will return to the optimistic, "can do" American spirit that made us the economic engine of the world. But, along with the three C's must come the realization that never again will a giant, free wheeling economy such as ours be allowed to function without a traffic cop and a set of rules and regulations which will prevent it from derailing again in the next market cycle. A totally free market is a vulnerable market.

Recession or Depression?

By any name the economy is on a slide down a slippery slope, with no brakes on the sled. Underlying the descent is FEAR, but that fear is rational and justified. Ours has evolved into a consumption economy based on easy credit. To sustain such an economy we must have high employment, high wages and ever increasing but controlled inflation in asset values. In the last decade government policy has undermined all three of those requirements.
The outsourcing of our industrial production, encouraged by the administration under the assumption that lower production costs increase volume, eroded the blue collar
segment of our population. This drove down the bargaining power of labor, leading to higher unemployment and lower wages.
Promoting easy credit for consumption led to a massive accumulation of debt and the almost complete disappearance of savings. Speculation in real estate and a mortgage industry that completely abandoned good risk management in exchange for quick and easy profits, laid the groundwork for the collapse of the over-inflated housing market. This eroded the asset base of the financial institutions and resulted in the drying up of credit.
To turn all this around will require time, which we don't have during our free fall. The new administration will need to be bold; to take huge risks, and to do
things which would be imprudent in other times. And they must be quick! That may be the rub. The Republicans in the Senate will resist the amount of spending required, under the guise of deficit control, and in the hope of discrediting the new administration. It will be our responsibility, the middle class of voters, to hold their feet to the fire and force them to act for the public good.

The Dance of Death

Once again Israelis and Palestinians have locked arms in a macabre, and futile dance of death. Hamas, which has no future to offer the Palestinians, pursues the dead end of seeking Israel's destruction. In the process, Gaza, and any hope for a decent life for the Palestinians, is devastated.
Frustrated Israel, harassed by Hamas's asymetric tactic of intermittent rocket attacks on its civilians, and unable to modify Hamas's intransigent charter calling for the elimination of the Jewish state, attempts to up the ante for Hamas by punishing, violent blows. In the process the hapless Gaza residents endure a life of constant deprivation, fear, helpless rage, death and injury.
The other Arab states are happy to use the plight of the Palestinians as a propaganda tool against Israel, and the United States. The welfare of the Palestinians occupies no space in their agenda. In fact a peaceful resolution of the conflict could endanger the controlling oligarchies by eliminating the value of the conflict to divert their subjects from their failed governance.
Some conflicts defy resolution. This may be one. The most that we can hope for would be a shaky, but prolonged armistice. Then time, globalization, and technology might stimulate a gradual evolution into peace.